10 Mar 2015
UK Budget 2015 coming up - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS noted the looming general election and party political posturing – rather than the UK’s shaky fiscal fundamentals – will shape the content and tone of the 2015 Budget.
Key Quotes:
"Any detail on the politically unpalatable mix of deep spending cuts and broad-based tax rises required to eliminate the UK’s large structural fiscal deficit will be lacking."
"What the OBR’s updated projections will do is reinforce the daunting scale of the fiscal challenge and thus provide the backdrop for the most divergent fiscal policy agendas adopted by the main parties for at least two decades."
"Revisions to the OBR’s near-term GDP and borrowing projections are likely to be minor so the immediate market interest is likely to centre on the detail of the heavy issuance schedule."
"We expect only minor revisions to the OBR’s GDP forecasts."
"We expect the OBR to unveil modest downward revisions to its near-term borrowing projections."
"The Chancellor insists the UK ‘can’t afford some pre-election giveaway’ (FT, 7 March) but ministers have spoken of ‘modest changes’ in tax and spending and ‘pleasant surprises’."
"The UK’s fiscal fundamentals remain daunting, with the country continuing to run one of the largest structural deficits in the developed world. A pre-election Budget is an unlikely moment to unveil details about how, exactly, this structural deficit is to be eliminated – though it is worth noting that the main parties’ stated fiscal policies appear more polarised than at any point in the past two decades. The key question is how much a hung parliament"
Key Quotes:
"Any detail on the politically unpalatable mix of deep spending cuts and broad-based tax rises required to eliminate the UK’s large structural fiscal deficit will be lacking."
"What the OBR’s updated projections will do is reinforce the daunting scale of the fiscal challenge and thus provide the backdrop for the most divergent fiscal policy agendas adopted by the main parties for at least two decades."
"Revisions to the OBR’s near-term GDP and borrowing projections are likely to be minor so the immediate market interest is likely to centre on the detail of the heavy issuance schedule."
"We expect only minor revisions to the OBR’s GDP forecasts."
"We expect the OBR to unveil modest downward revisions to its near-term borrowing projections."
"The Chancellor insists the UK ‘can’t afford some pre-election giveaway’ (FT, 7 March) but ministers have spoken of ‘modest changes’ in tax and spending and ‘pleasant surprises’."
"The UK’s fiscal fundamentals remain daunting, with the country continuing to run one of the largest structural deficits in the developed world. A pre-election Budget is an unlikely moment to unveil details about how, exactly, this structural deficit is to be eliminated – though it is worth noting that the main parties’ stated fiscal policies appear more polarised than at any point in the past two decades. The key question is how much a hung parliament"