17 Mar 2015
EUR/USD: Odds remain in favor of an extension to 1.0072 - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategit at JPMorga, notes that as long as EUR/USD doesn't break above 1.0860, the odds remain in favor of an extension to 1.0072.
Key Quotes
"The decisive break below key-support at 1.1098/91 (last low/C = A) in EUR/USDlast week constituted a major game change, as it eliminated the only bullish scenario out of 3 possible variations."
"The only remaining scenarios are both negative and provide their first down-target at 1.0072 (76.4 % of the 2000-2008 rally) in a corrective scenario A, whereas scenario B is looking for an extended 3rd wave decline to projected Fib.-targets at 0.9652 and at 0.9298."
"Short-term though andas long as a minor wave 3 projection at 1.0496 holds, we can’t exclude a bounce into 1.0860/1.0907 (minor38.2 %7pivot), which would have to be cleared to support a stronger recovery to 38.2 % retracements on higher scale at 1.1288/99 and at 1.1720. Particularly below 1.0860 though, the odds remain in favor of a straight extension lower, confirmed via a break below 1.0496."
Key Quotes
"The decisive break below key-support at 1.1098/91 (last low/C = A) in EUR/USDlast week constituted a major game change, as it eliminated the only bullish scenario out of 3 possible variations."
"The only remaining scenarios are both negative and provide their first down-target at 1.0072 (76.4 % of the 2000-2008 rally) in a corrective scenario A, whereas scenario B is looking for an extended 3rd wave decline to projected Fib.-targets at 0.9652 and at 0.9298."
"Short-term though andas long as a minor wave 3 projection at 1.0496 holds, we can’t exclude a bounce into 1.0860/1.0907 (minor38.2 %7pivot), which would have to be cleared to support a stronger recovery to 38.2 % retracements on higher scale at 1.1288/99 and at 1.1720. Particularly below 1.0860 though, the odds remain in favor of a straight extension lower, confirmed via a break below 1.0496."