20 Mar 2015
Key events for the close - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events for the rest of the week.
Key Quotes:
"RBA Governor Stevens speaks today, which gives him a good platform to be tactically gloomy if he wants to try to talk down AUD (the central banking equivalent of the traditional “How’s business?” “Don’t ask!” shtick). Nonetheless, he hasn’t proved very adept at that so far: “How’s business?” “The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet” is not really as effective."
"Nonetheless, with trade-weighted AUD arguably around 10% overvalued, he needs to do/say something. We also have two Fed speakers, Lockhart and Evans, both focusing on US monetary policy: the market will no doubt be looking to see if there are any slips towards optimism: if so, it’s arguably up, up, and away for USD again."
"Data-wise, there is just the UK public sector borrowing figures, which are two days after the last Budget, and so potentially hold up an immediate yard-stick for it."
"In Europe there will be the more Greece-watching, with the latest rumour being that the Greek government is now raiding public utilities for cash, having already dipped into pension reserves: clearly this can’t go on for much longer, and Greek bond yields were at their highest for almost two years yesterday."
"However, last night’s Euro meeting saw an unnamed official state that there was “common ground for progress” and that Greek cash should last “until April”. That is still not really a solution, and this perma-crisis may have an impact on EUR/USD again today."
"Apart from that it’s likely to be a quiet session. Happy Friday– and may your umbrellas be hole free."
Key Quotes:
"RBA Governor Stevens speaks today, which gives him a good platform to be tactically gloomy if he wants to try to talk down AUD (the central banking equivalent of the traditional “How’s business?” “Don’t ask!” shtick). Nonetheless, he hasn’t proved very adept at that so far: “How’s business?” “The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet” is not really as effective."
"Nonetheless, with trade-weighted AUD arguably around 10% overvalued, he needs to do/say something. We also have two Fed speakers, Lockhart and Evans, both focusing on US monetary policy: the market will no doubt be looking to see if there are any slips towards optimism: if so, it’s arguably up, up, and away for USD again."
"Data-wise, there is just the UK public sector borrowing figures, which are two days after the last Budget, and so potentially hold up an immediate yard-stick for it."
"In Europe there will be the more Greece-watching, with the latest rumour being that the Greek government is now raiding public utilities for cash, having already dipped into pension reserves: clearly this can’t go on for much longer, and Greek bond yields were at their highest for almost two years yesterday."
"However, last night’s Euro meeting saw an unnamed official state that there was “common ground for progress” and that Greek cash should last “until April”. That is still not really a solution, and this perma-crisis may have an impact on EUR/USD again today."
"Apart from that it’s likely to be a quiet session. Happy Friday– and may your umbrellas be hole free."