24 Mar 2015
NZ trade balance preview - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist at Capital Economist, expects a NZ trade deficit of around $200m in February, with odds in favour of a further widening in coming months.
Key Quotes
The improvement in New Zealand’s trade position in recent months, which resulted in a seasonally-adjusted trade surplus of $28m in January, probably went into reverse in February (21.45 GMT Tuesday).
The sharp fall in the oil price in previous months should have reduced the value of oil imports by at least $100m in February. However, this should have been dwarfed by the drop in the value of exports triggered by the falls in dairy and meat prices.
We have pencilled in a swing in the trade balance from a surplus of $28m in January to a deficit of around $200m in February. Looking ahead, since it takes time for lower dairy prices to fully affect export values, the deficit should soon widen further.
Key Quotes
The improvement in New Zealand’s trade position in recent months, which resulted in a seasonally-adjusted trade surplus of $28m in January, probably went into reverse in February (21.45 GMT Tuesday).
The sharp fall in the oil price in previous months should have reduced the value of oil imports by at least $100m in February. However, this should have been dwarfed by the drop in the value of exports triggered by the falls in dairy and meat prices.
We have pencilled in a swing in the trade balance from a surplus of $28m in January to a deficit of around $200m in February. Looking ahead, since it takes time for lower dairy prices to fully affect export values, the deficit should soon widen further.