30 Mar 2015
USD about to get stronger? – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Flemming Nielsen sees the possibility that the dollar resumes its ascent in the near term.
Key Quotes
“Yellen's speech on Friday did not move USD crosses much but confirms our view that the Fed wants to hike sooner rather than later and then move gradually rather than quickly on tightening: in our view, this suggests that the Fed will deliver USD upside ahead of a September hike”.
“Today's US inflation figures will be interesting in the context of the timing of a first hike but we note that Yellen said on Friday that a pick-up in inflation is not a prerequisite for the Fed to hike”.
“While we maintain that it will take a move for the better in US vis-à-vis euro-zone data surprises for EUR/USD to see the next sustained move lower in the cross, we are likely getting closer to this with this week's US non-farm payrolls (due on Good Friday)”.
“We look for a strong but more moderate headline (230K) than consensus, and not least if earnings prove healthy as well this should confirm that the labour market will not be an obstacle for the Fed to start hiking rates over the summer, paving the way for the next round of USD strength early April”.
Key Quotes
“Yellen's speech on Friday did not move USD crosses much but confirms our view that the Fed wants to hike sooner rather than later and then move gradually rather than quickly on tightening: in our view, this suggests that the Fed will deliver USD upside ahead of a September hike”.
“Today's US inflation figures will be interesting in the context of the timing of a first hike but we note that Yellen said on Friday that a pick-up in inflation is not a prerequisite for the Fed to hike”.
“While we maintain that it will take a move for the better in US vis-à-vis euro-zone data surprises for EUR/USD to see the next sustained move lower in the cross, we are likely getting closer to this with this week's US non-farm payrolls (due on Good Friday)”.
“We look for a strong but more moderate headline (230K) than consensus, and not least if earnings prove healthy as well this should confirm that the labour market will not be an obstacle for the Fed to start hiking rates over the summer, paving the way for the next round of USD strength early April”.