30 Mar 2015
UK election betting market snapshot – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS shares the scenario at the betting markets for the UK elections, noting that probability for a hung parliament at 82%, remains the highest.
Key Quotes
“The UK election outcome remains too close to call. The Budget (18 March) and party leaders TV interviews (26 March) have not obviously triggered any change in voting intentions or betting market pricing.”
“The latest polling data strongly suggest a hung parliament, with rising risks of a minority government – which would presumably be much less stable and durable than a coalition.”
“There is likely to be something of a lull in the polling and betting data around Easter, but the following fortnight could well be crucial in terms of the expected outcome and any financial market reaction.”
“Betting markets continue to attach a high – and still rising – probability to a hung parliament (82%), with a further surge in expectations that this hung parliament will result in a minority government (59%) rather than a coalition (28%).”
“A minority government could potentially be more problematic for financial markets and would increase the probability of a second election in 2015.”
“Betting markets still regard some form of Conservative-led administration (50% probability) as more likely than a Labour-led one (45%), though the gap here has narrowed over the past fortnight.”
“We regard this narrowing with some scepticism as it appears to be underpinned by a rising expectation of a Labour minority government – this strikes us as somewhat counter-intuitive as there are more obvious coalition options on the centre-left.”
Key Quotes
“The UK election outcome remains too close to call. The Budget (18 March) and party leaders TV interviews (26 March) have not obviously triggered any change in voting intentions or betting market pricing.”
“The latest polling data strongly suggest a hung parliament, with rising risks of a minority government – which would presumably be much less stable and durable than a coalition.”
“There is likely to be something of a lull in the polling and betting data around Easter, but the following fortnight could well be crucial in terms of the expected outcome and any financial market reaction.”
“Betting markets continue to attach a high – and still rising – probability to a hung parliament (82%), with a further surge in expectations that this hung parliament will result in a minority government (59%) rather than a coalition (28%).”
“A minority government could potentially be more problematic for financial markets and would increase the probability of a second election in 2015.”
“Betting markets still regard some form of Conservative-led administration (50% probability) as more likely than a Labour-led one (45%), though the gap here has narrowed over the past fortnight.”
“We regard this narrowing with some scepticism as it appears to be underpinned by a rising expectation of a Labour minority government – this strikes us as somewhat counter-intuitive as there are more obvious coalition options on the centre-left.”