3 Apr 2015
Asymmetrical risk in nonfarm payrolls - BBH
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Brown Brothers Harriman team notes that there is an asymmetrical risk in the nonfarm payrolls report this month, as a weak number is likely to alter expectations about the timing of a rate hike by the Fed, while a strong number is not.
Key Quotes
“The US employment report stands between us and the weekend. With parts of Asia and nearly all of Europe closed, participation is obviously considerably lighter than normal. This coupled with significant positioning can make for dramatic moves”.
“At the same time, there is an asymmetrical risk. A robust report does not change the status quo”.
“The relatively steady improvement in the labor market has not prevented scaling back of Fed hike expectations. Another strong report is unlikely to persuade the market that a June rate hike is more likely. A weak, however, could push market sentiment away from a September hike”.
Key Quotes
“The US employment report stands between us and the weekend. With parts of Asia and nearly all of Europe closed, participation is obviously considerably lighter than normal. This coupled with significant positioning can make for dramatic moves”.
“At the same time, there is an asymmetrical risk. A robust report does not change the status quo”.
“The relatively steady improvement in the labor market has not prevented scaling back of Fed hike expectations. Another strong report is unlikely to persuade the market that a June rate hike is more likely. A weak, however, could push market sentiment away from a September hike”.