3 Apr 2015
US NFP result much weaker, downward revision to last 2 months’ data – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the disappointing US jobs data, James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, comments that bad weather is distorting the true picture of the US economy, and with data expected to rebound in coming months, a June hike is still on the table.
Key Quotes
“The March payrolls figure of 126,000 is substantially below the 245,000 predicted and when we add in a net 69,000 downward revision to the last two months' data it is clearly a bad miss.”
“However, that is only one part of the labour report. Unemployment remained unchanged at 5.5% while the underemployment rate dipped to 10.9% from 11%. Significantly, there was a better than hoped pay figure with average hourly earnings rising 0.3%MoM/2.1%YoY.”
“This subdued payrolls figure is consistent with the softer activity data seen in recent months, but we believe that this has largely been due to bad weather distorting the true picture for the economy and the West Coast Port disruption, which has been economically significant.”
“With these factors having disipated we expect the "hard" data to bounce back in the next few months and the payrolls figures to also recover.”
“Indeed, the strength in consumer confidence offers clear encouragement for this view.”
“Consequently a June rate hike from the Federal Reserve remains on the agenda, but we need to see the rebound come through quickly.”
Key Quotes
“The March payrolls figure of 126,000 is substantially below the 245,000 predicted and when we add in a net 69,000 downward revision to the last two months' data it is clearly a bad miss.”
“However, that is only one part of the labour report. Unemployment remained unchanged at 5.5% while the underemployment rate dipped to 10.9% from 11%. Significantly, there was a better than hoped pay figure with average hourly earnings rising 0.3%MoM/2.1%YoY.”
“This subdued payrolls figure is consistent with the softer activity data seen in recent months, but we believe that this has largely been due to bad weather distorting the true picture for the economy and the West Coast Port disruption, which has been economically significant.”
“With these factors having disipated we expect the "hard" data to bounce back in the next few months and the payrolls figures to also recover.”
“Indeed, the strength in consumer confidence offers clear encouragement for this view.”
“Consequently a June rate hike from the Federal Reserve remains on the agenda, but we need to see the rebound come through quickly.”