6 Apr 2015
70% chance that the Fed will hike in 2015 - BNP
FXStreet (Bali) - BNP Economists still put it at a 70% chance that the Fed will hike in 2015.
Key Quotes
We see a bit more than half the surprise as being due to the weather.
We believe the underlying pace of payrolls growth has slowed from around 300k per month at the end of last year to 225k now.
We expect a bounce back in employment next month, with payrolls likely to come in at around 275k.
The Fed is unlikely to make precipitate judgements on the back of these numbers and will presumably expect a similar rebound.
We disagree with the market pricing out rate hikes this year and while we have reduced our probability, we still put it at a 70% chance that the Fed will hike in 2015.
Key Quotes
We see a bit more than half the surprise as being due to the weather.
We believe the underlying pace of payrolls growth has slowed from around 300k per month at the end of last year to 225k now.
We expect a bounce back in employment next month, with payrolls likely to come in at around 275k.
The Fed is unlikely to make precipitate judgements on the back of these numbers and will presumably expect a similar rebound.
We disagree with the market pricing out rate hikes this year and while we have reduced our probability, we still put it at a 70% chance that the Fed will hike in 2015.