6 Apr 2015
Weak payrolls to pressure USD - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities comments on the US jobs data released in the previous week, and further add that markets doubt a probable September hike by the Fed, with the soft payrolls data making USD vulnerable to setbacks.
Key Quotes
“There’s apparently a fair degree of seasonality in March NFP data as well; a Bloomberg article released shortly before the NFP report Friday highlighted the recent tendency for the March data to miss on the downside relative to market expectations.”
“This year’s March data did not disappoint that trend, with the result just about half of what the market had expected; while weather conditions may have affected the labour market last month, the data looked relatively soft all round—there were negative revisions to the last two months’ worth of non-farm job increases, manufacturing jobs shrank modestly and the average weekly hours measure slipped a tenth.”
“Unemployment remained at 5.5% and hourly earnings were stronger at 0.3% but that does not offset the headline disappointment.”
“Fed officials have indicated 200k NFP gains/month as a bellwether for the labour market and March was well shy of that; but policy makers will not panic about one month’s data after such a strong and consistent run of job gains, particularly one that may have been impacted by weather.”
“Still, with Q1 growth looking sluggish and payroll growth dipping last month, a June lift off looks an even less likely prospect and the market may have more doubts about September; yields are liable to stay softer and the USD remains vulnerable to a set-back.”
Key Quotes
“There’s apparently a fair degree of seasonality in March NFP data as well; a Bloomberg article released shortly before the NFP report Friday highlighted the recent tendency for the March data to miss on the downside relative to market expectations.”
“This year’s March data did not disappoint that trend, with the result just about half of what the market had expected; while weather conditions may have affected the labour market last month, the data looked relatively soft all round—there were negative revisions to the last two months’ worth of non-farm job increases, manufacturing jobs shrank modestly and the average weekly hours measure slipped a tenth.”
“Unemployment remained at 5.5% and hourly earnings were stronger at 0.3% but that does not offset the headline disappointment.”
“Fed officials have indicated 200k NFP gains/month as a bellwether for the labour market and March was well shy of that; but policy makers will not panic about one month’s data after such a strong and consistent run of job gains, particularly one that may have been impacted by weather.”
“Still, with Q1 growth looking sluggish and payroll growth dipping last month, a June lift off looks an even less likely prospect and the market may have more doubts about September; yields are liable to stay softer and the USD remains vulnerable to a set-back.”