6 Apr 2015
Key events ahead in the EM – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the key central bank rate decisions and other data releases in this week in emerging markets.
Key Quotes
“Brazil reports March IPCA inflation Wednesday, expected to rise 8.20% y/y vs. 7.70% in February. This is well above the 2.5-6.5% target range, and should lead COPOM to deliver another 50 bp hike to 13.25% when it next meets April 29."
“Reserve Bank of India meets Tuesday and is expected to keep the repo rate steady at 7.50%. However, a minority expects a 25 bp cut to 7.25%.”
“During this year’s easing cycle, the RBI has preferred to move intra-meeting, cutting in January and March while standing pat at the scheduled February meeting. While timing is hard to predict, we do think easing will continue this year at a modest pace since price pressures remain low.”
“Bank of Korea meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%.”
“March CPI came in as expected at 0.4% y/y vs. 0.5% in February. This is well below the 2.5-3.5% target range. BOK finally cut rates with a 25 bp move in March."
“We think easing will continue as inflation remains very low, but another move in April seems too soon."
“China reports March CPI and PPI Friday. The former is expected to rise 1.2% y/y vs. 1.4% in February, while the latter is expected to remains steady at -4.8%.”
“Most of the China data deluge will come out next week (new loans, trade, retail sales, IP). For now, markets seem comfortable with the modestly softer China outlook, as expectations build for more monetary and fiscal stimulus ahead.”
Key Quotes
“Brazil reports March IPCA inflation Wednesday, expected to rise 8.20% y/y vs. 7.70% in February. This is well above the 2.5-6.5% target range, and should lead COPOM to deliver another 50 bp hike to 13.25% when it next meets April 29."
“Reserve Bank of India meets Tuesday and is expected to keep the repo rate steady at 7.50%. However, a minority expects a 25 bp cut to 7.25%.”
“During this year’s easing cycle, the RBI has preferred to move intra-meeting, cutting in January and March while standing pat at the scheduled February meeting. While timing is hard to predict, we do think easing will continue this year at a modest pace since price pressures remain low.”
“Bank of Korea meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%.”
“March CPI came in as expected at 0.4% y/y vs. 0.5% in February. This is well below the 2.5-3.5% target range. BOK finally cut rates with a 25 bp move in March."
“We think easing will continue as inflation remains very low, but another move in April seems too soon."
“China reports March CPI and PPI Friday. The former is expected to rise 1.2% y/y vs. 1.4% in February, while the latter is expected to remains steady at -4.8%.”
“Most of the China data deluge will come out next week (new loans, trade, retail sales, IP). For now, markets seem comfortable with the modestly softer China outlook, as expectations build for more monetary and fiscal stimulus ahead.”