6 Apr 2015
EUR: Record short position build further - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - As noted by the FX Team at TD Securities, the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, for the week ending Tuesday, March 31st, shows record short position accumulated in the EUR being built further.
Key Quotes
CFTC data for the week through March 31st reflected recent trends in speculative positioning in the major currencies. Investors continued to build on the already significant (record) short position accumulated in the EUR in recent weeks, extending the net exposure here to 226k contracts (up from a net short of 220k contracts in the prior week).
The overall bull bet on the USD, implied by the aggregate position in all the major currencies continue to shrink, however, (to USD41.1bn in the March 31st week, down from USD45.3bn in the prior week by our calculations), reflecting shrinking bets on the USD elsewhere.
The most notable (relative) change in positioning this week came in the JPY contract, where the market’s bear bet on the JPY continued to erode. The latest week’s data saw the net JPY short all but halve (-23.9k contracts, down from –45.9k in the March 24th week); in late December, net JPY shorts stood in excess of 100k contracts. Seasonal issues (quarter end and Japanese fiscal year end) may have contributed to the positioning shift which leaves the IMM with its lowest overall net JPY short bet since October 2012.
Elsewhere, positioning changes were much less remarkable; net GBP shorts eased slightly (-36.6k contracts, down around 2k from the prior week) while net CHF positions were more or less flat from the small short that had been sustained since January. Net MXN shorts were cut 10k contracts to –30k this week.
In the commodity currencies, net AUD shorts eased this week (-24.3k, from –28.3k) while the market turned small net long NZD (+4k from the recent small net short sustained in recent months). This was the IMM’s first net long NZD position since September last year. Net CAD shorts were trimmed to just under –30k contracts (from –32.6k in the prior week).
Key Quotes
CFTC data for the week through March 31st reflected recent trends in speculative positioning in the major currencies. Investors continued to build on the already significant (record) short position accumulated in the EUR in recent weeks, extending the net exposure here to 226k contracts (up from a net short of 220k contracts in the prior week).
The overall bull bet on the USD, implied by the aggregate position in all the major currencies continue to shrink, however, (to USD41.1bn in the March 31st week, down from USD45.3bn in the prior week by our calculations), reflecting shrinking bets on the USD elsewhere.
The most notable (relative) change in positioning this week came in the JPY contract, where the market’s bear bet on the JPY continued to erode. The latest week’s data saw the net JPY short all but halve (-23.9k contracts, down from –45.9k in the March 24th week); in late December, net JPY shorts stood in excess of 100k contracts. Seasonal issues (quarter end and Japanese fiscal year end) may have contributed to the positioning shift which leaves the IMM with its lowest overall net JPY short bet since October 2012.
Elsewhere, positioning changes were much less remarkable; net GBP shorts eased slightly (-36.6k contracts, down around 2k from the prior week) while net CHF positions were more or less flat from the small short that had been sustained since January. Net MXN shorts were cut 10k contracts to –30k this week.
In the commodity currencies, net AUD shorts eased this week (-24.3k, from –28.3k) while the market turned small net long NZD (+4k from the recent small net short sustained in recent months). This was the IMM’s first net long NZD position since September last year. Net CAD shorts were trimmed to just under –30k contracts (from –32.6k in the prior week).