29 Apr 2015
No surprises expected from the BoJ – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, expects the BoJ no keep its monetary policy on hold in tomorrow’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“We do not expect the BoJ to announce any new easing measures in connection with the meeting but the statement will probably be softer in light of the recent weak data”.
“In our view, an unchanged policy from the BoJ is broadly priced in the market and thus should not lead to further JPY buying”.
“Hence, risks are probably skewed to the downside for the JPY if the BoJ surprises or if the statement is softer than expected”.
“According to the latest IMM positioning data, speculators have reduced their bearish JPY exposure in 12 out of 17 weeks in 2015, highlighting the significant shift in sentiment this year, which has sent non-commercial JPY positioning to the least bearish level under the period of ‘Abenomics’, i.e. since Q4 12”.
“Although speculators remain absolute net short the JPY, non-commercial positioning in the Japanese currency is now above the 50th percentile from a historical perspective. Hence, from a positioning point of view, there is room for a renewed build-up in short JPY positions if the BoJ surprises”.
Key Quotes
“We do not expect the BoJ to announce any new easing measures in connection with the meeting but the statement will probably be softer in light of the recent weak data”.
“In our view, an unchanged policy from the BoJ is broadly priced in the market and thus should not lead to further JPY buying”.
“Hence, risks are probably skewed to the downside for the JPY if the BoJ surprises or if the statement is softer than expected”.
“According to the latest IMM positioning data, speculators have reduced their bearish JPY exposure in 12 out of 17 weeks in 2015, highlighting the significant shift in sentiment this year, which has sent non-commercial JPY positioning to the least bearish level under the period of ‘Abenomics’, i.e. since Q4 12”.
“Although speculators remain absolute net short the JPY, non-commercial positioning in the Japanese currency is now above the 50th percentile from a historical perspective. Hence, from a positioning point of view, there is room for a renewed build-up in short JPY positions if the BoJ surprises”.