29 Apr 2015
Credit Suisse: When does the EUR/USD squeeze end? – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes that Credit Suisse believes that US data is set to surprise June onwards and set the stage for a September Fed hike, expecting EUR/USD to maintain its 1.0450-1.1150 range.
Key Quotes
“In terms of a pair like EURUSD, we have argued that there is a roughly 1.0450 – 1.1150 range in play and that either end of this range should be faded. With the upper end now in sight, we still prefer to hold this view, especially if these levels are reached before the next payrolls number.”
“We would be prepared to concede that this strategy is wrong if EURUSD breaks above 1.1200 convincingly in the aftermath of persistent soft data, including a second weak payrolls number.”
“Otherwise, over time the persistence of the US’s rate differential advantage should come back into play.”
“Especially as our economists expect US data surprises to shift back into positive territory from June onwards, setting the stage for a September rate hike (earlier than the December start currently priced into the market)."
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“In terms of a pair like EURUSD, we have argued that there is a roughly 1.0450 – 1.1150 range in play and that either end of this range should be faded. With the upper end now in sight, we still prefer to hold this view, especially if these levels are reached before the next payrolls number.”
“We would be prepared to concede that this strategy is wrong if EURUSD breaks above 1.1200 convincingly in the aftermath of persistent soft data, including a second weak payrolls number.”
“Otherwise, over time the persistence of the US’s rate differential advantage should come back into play.”
“Especially as our economists expect US data surprises to shift back into positive territory from June onwards, setting the stage for a September rate hike (earlier than the December start currently priced into the market)."
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.