30 Apr 2015
US to see an above trend growth in coming quarters – NAB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tony Kelly, Senior Economist at National Australia Bank, expects US growth to rebound in coming quarters but less than compared to 2014 growth, and further lowers the 2015 GDP forecast to 2.5%.
Key Quotes
“While the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 was not unexpected, it was still more than we had expected. It starkly contrasts with hopes that growth would move to an even more solid footing this year as fiscal and other headwinds continued to fade, and the (on-balance) positive impact of the fall in oil prices.”
“However, economic data are volatile; the falls in GDP in the March 2011 and 2014 quarters, and the flat December 2012 outcome, ultimately did not signal any fundamental change in economic circumstances. The annual growth rate (March quarter on same time last year) was 3.0%, its highest rate since mid-2010. We expect that, like these previous episodes, the growth slowdown will prove to be temporary.”
“We expect the economy will resume growing at an above trend in coming quarters. However, at this stage we do not expect a bounce back in growth comparable to that in 2014, in part because of the different stages of the inventory cycle (with inventories likely to detract from growth in coming quarters). As a result we have reduced our forecast for GDP growth in 2015 to 2.5% (previously 2.7%), but left have our 2016 forecast unchanged at 2.7%.”
Key Quotes
“While the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 was not unexpected, it was still more than we had expected. It starkly contrasts with hopes that growth would move to an even more solid footing this year as fiscal and other headwinds continued to fade, and the (on-balance) positive impact of the fall in oil prices.”
“However, economic data are volatile; the falls in GDP in the March 2011 and 2014 quarters, and the flat December 2012 outcome, ultimately did not signal any fundamental change in economic circumstances. The annual growth rate (March quarter on same time last year) was 3.0%, its highest rate since mid-2010. We expect that, like these previous episodes, the growth slowdown will prove to be temporary.”
“We expect the economy will resume growing at an above trend in coming quarters. However, at this stage we do not expect a bounce back in growth comparable to that in 2014, in part because of the different stages of the inventory cycle (with inventories likely to detract from growth in coming quarters). As a result we have reduced our forecast for GDP growth in 2015 to 2.5% (previously 2.7%), but left have our 2016 forecast unchanged at 2.7%.”