1 May 2015
EUR/USD: Through 1.1300 opens 1.1600, potentially - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted that EUR/USD’s push through strong resistance (now support) in the 1.1040/00 range this week prompted a quick additional gain of around 200 ticks at the peak on Friday.
Key Quotes:
"EUR/USD has extended well through the 40-day MA for the first time since mid-June and trend momentum has turned positive on the shorter term studies—clear positives for the EUR."
"But the stumble in EUR/USD price action ahead of the weekend suggests that the EUR still has its work cut out to improve in a sustained manner. A soft-ish close to the week will leave EUR/USD exposed to a retest of support in the low 1.11 area in the next few days, we think. A drop back under 1.1040/50 means the EUR bounce is over."
"The fact that EUR/USD has stalled at the initial retracement of the 1.40/1.04 decline (23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 1.1296) is a clear warning that the rally in the EUR could be over before it really got going."
"An extension through 1.13 should see the EUR rally extend—towards 1.16 potentially—in the next few weeks but the calendar may be running against the EUR, given that seasonal trends tend to move against the EUR quite distinctly (since 1999, at least) in May. For choice, given the stall at key retracement resistance, we favour short EUR/USD positions now, with a close stop/reverse above major retracement resistance at 1.1296."
Key Quotes:
"EUR/USD has extended well through the 40-day MA for the first time since mid-June and trend momentum has turned positive on the shorter term studies—clear positives for the EUR."
"But the stumble in EUR/USD price action ahead of the weekend suggests that the EUR still has its work cut out to improve in a sustained manner. A soft-ish close to the week will leave EUR/USD exposed to a retest of support in the low 1.11 area in the next few days, we think. A drop back under 1.1040/50 means the EUR bounce is over."
"The fact that EUR/USD has stalled at the initial retracement of the 1.40/1.04 decline (23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 1.1296) is a clear warning that the rally in the EUR could be over before it really got going."
"An extension through 1.13 should see the EUR rally extend—towards 1.16 potentially—in the next few weeks but the calendar may be running against the EUR, given that seasonal trends tend to move against the EUR quite distinctly (since 1999, at least) in May. For choice, given the stall at key retracement resistance, we favour short EUR/USD positions now, with a close stop/reverse above major retracement resistance at 1.1296."