4 May 2015
Outlook for AUD and crosses – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at ANZ share the fundamental outlook and the expected ranges for AUD crosses, and believe that US NFP will decide the fate for the Aussie.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The AUD is likely to have a volatile week with a number of intersecting forces. Domestically the RBA is expected to cut rates, and downgrade its growth forecasts, driving weakness, but at the same time data could show further signs of stabilisation. Ultimately, the fate of the AUD will rest on the US payrolls report and the momentum of the USD.
Expected range: 0.7730 – 0.7940”
“AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD should continue to consolidate as weakness in the milk price weighs on the NZD and the RBA weighs on the AUD.
Expected range: 1.0330 – 1.0460”
“AUD/EUR: EUR has been running higher as Greek fears settle. However, we remain without a deal and the fundamentals have softened, such as the PMIs. Current levels look relatively attractive for exporters to Europe.
Expected range: 0.6920 – 0.7110”
“AUD/JPY: AUD data remains in the driving seat, as there is little Japanese data.
Expected range: 92.70 – 95.10”
“AUD/GBP: The UK general election will dominate GBP thinking this week. Risks continue to be for GBP weakness into Thursday’s election, and with prospects of a hung parliament, or UK referendum on EU membership, GBP weakness could extend into the coming weeks.
Expected range: 0.5120 – 0.5250”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The AUD is likely to have a volatile week with a number of intersecting forces. Domestically the RBA is expected to cut rates, and downgrade its growth forecasts, driving weakness, but at the same time data could show further signs of stabilisation. Ultimately, the fate of the AUD will rest on the US payrolls report and the momentum of the USD.
Expected range: 0.7730 – 0.7940”
“AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD should continue to consolidate as weakness in the milk price weighs on the NZD and the RBA weighs on the AUD.
Expected range: 1.0330 – 1.0460”
“AUD/EUR: EUR has been running higher as Greek fears settle. However, we remain without a deal and the fundamentals have softened, such as the PMIs. Current levels look relatively attractive for exporters to Europe.
Expected range: 0.6920 – 0.7110”
“AUD/JPY: AUD data remains in the driving seat, as there is little Japanese data.
Expected range: 92.70 – 95.10”
“AUD/GBP: The UK general election will dominate GBP thinking this week. Risks continue to be for GBP weakness into Thursday’s election, and with prospects of a hung parliament, or UK referendum on EU membership, GBP weakness could extend into the coming weeks.
Expected range: 0.5120 – 0.5250”