6 May 2015
US NFP forecast at 235K – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, anticipate US employment data to put the Fed lift-off back in focus, forecasting nonfarm payrolls at 235K.
Key Quotes
“Following weak data in 1Q, the market seems to be increasingly pessimistic about the economy. Evidence showing that 1Q weakness was temporary should bring the Fed lift-off back to focus, in our view. And April data will be key to test the transitory nature of the 1Q weakness.”
“Our economists expect an overall strong April payroll report (non-farm payrolls to increase by 235K, unemployment rate to slip to 5.4%, and average hourly earnings to grow 0.2% mom) and 2.5% GDP growth in 2Q. Very recent data show some signs of bounce-back already.”
“The 1Q Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 2.6% yoy, the strongest reading since late 2008. ISM non-manufacturing for April also came in stronger than expectations.”
Key Quotes
“Following weak data in 1Q, the market seems to be increasingly pessimistic about the economy. Evidence showing that 1Q weakness was temporary should bring the Fed lift-off back to focus, in our view. And April data will be key to test the transitory nature of the 1Q weakness.”
“Our economists expect an overall strong April payroll report (non-farm payrolls to increase by 235K, unemployment rate to slip to 5.4%, and average hourly earnings to grow 0.2% mom) and 2.5% GDP growth in 2Q. Very recent data show some signs of bounce-back already.”
“The 1Q Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 2.6% yoy, the strongest reading since late 2008. ISM non-manufacturing for April also came in stronger than expectations.”