7 May 2015
Considerable uncertainty surrounds UK election outcome - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura notes that their baseline forecast for the UK election continues to be 290 seats (±30) for the Conservatives, enough to command the confidence of the house with 28 LibDems (±6) and 8-9 DUP MPs.
Key Quotes
"Although it may take many days for the exact terms of the new government to be known, the seat arithmetic early on 8 May could reveal who will be leading it."
"As such, as the results are rolled out, we will be tracking them for consistency with our baseline, narrowing the 90% confidence interval around the outcome as we go."
"Our baseline forecast continues to be 290 seats (±30) for the Conservatives, which would be enough to command the confidence of the house with 28 LibDems (±6) and 8-9 DUP MPs."
"The exit poll at 10pm may provide valuable information again, so we will be watching this as a first guide before the results start rolling in, with the outcome likely to be clear at about 4am on Friday"
Key Quotes
"Although it may take many days for the exact terms of the new government to be known, the seat arithmetic early on 8 May could reveal who will be leading it."
"As such, as the results are rolled out, we will be tracking them for consistency with our baseline, narrowing the 90% confidence interval around the outcome as we go."
"Our baseline forecast continues to be 290 seats (±30) for the Conservatives, which would be enough to command the confidence of the house with 28 LibDems (±6) and 8-9 DUP MPs."
"The exit poll at 10pm may provide valuable information again, so we will be watching this as a first guide before the results start rolling in, with the outcome likely to be clear at about 4am on Friday"