7 May 2015
US April nonfarm payrolls might register a 270K print – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Nomura, revise their April’s US NFP forecast upwards by 60k to 270k due to the ‘April calendar bias’.
Key Quotes
“Recent data suggest that the pace of economic activity has accelerated somewhat since the end of the first quarter. Our models suggest that this modest pickup is broadly consistent with growth in private payrolls of about 200,000 per month.”
“That said, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce on Friday, 8 May, that a net new 270k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in April. We revised our forecast up because of some apparent residual seasonality in the BLS payroll estimates.”
“This year, there is a five-week interval between the March and April establishment survey reference periods (includes the 12th of the month). The survey interval between BLS adjacent reference weeks vary between four and five weeks. The BLS identifies and attempts to adjust for predictable seasonal and calendar-related patterns (such as the length of the gap between surveys) in the industry-level source data. However, nothing in the BLS procedures ensures that all seasonal and calendar-related patterns are eliminated from the adjusted data for broad aggregates such as total and private payroll employment.”
“Taking the five-week interval into account, our analysis suggests there could be an upward bias of 40-70k in the BLS’s estimate for private payrolls in April that will be released on Friday.”
Key Quotes
“Recent data suggest that the pace of economic activity has accelerated somewhat since the end of the first quarter. Our models suggest that this modest pickup is broadly consistent with growth in private payrolls of about 200,000 per month.”
“That said, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce on Friday, 8 May, that a net new 270k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in April. We revised our forecast up because of some apparent residual seasonality in the BLS payroll estimates.”
“This year, there is a five-week interval between the March and April establishment survey reference periods (includes the 12th of the month). The survey interval between BLS adjacent reference weeks vary between four and five weeks. The BLS identifies and attempts to adjust for predictable seasonal and calendar-related patterns (such as the length of the gap between surveys) in the industry-level source data. However, nothing in the BLS procedures ensures that all seasonal and calendar-related patterns are eliminated from the adjusted data for broad aggregates such as total and private payroll employment.”
“Taking the five-week interval into account, our analysis suggests there could be an upward bias of 40-70k in the BLS’s estimate for private payrolls in April that will be released on Friday.”