8 May 2015
Treat UK exit poll shocker with some degree of caution - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Nomura Research Analysts, even though exit polls have proven to be remarkably accurate in recent UK elections, these numbers still need to be treated with some degree of caution.
Key Quotes
"The BBC/ITV Exit Poll has 316 for Conservatives, 239 for Labour, 58 for SNP, 10 for the Liberal Democrats with 2 for Green, 2 for UKIP, 4 for PC and 19 for others (mostly N.I. seats + perhaps the Respect party)."
"This puts us in Band 1 of our scenarios where it is most likely for the conservatives to put something together even on their own or with the help of the Liberal Democrats or DUP."
"This is just an exit poll, which has an error of around 20 seats either way for the major parties. It could take a few variations in the actual results to change the conclusion of tonight, but this is positive news for the conservatives and GBP is reacting in a similar fashion so far."
"All this being said, even though exit polls have proven to be remarkably accurate in recent UK elections, we still need to treat these numbers with some degree of caution, as there are many finely-balanced constituencies and smaller parties in this election. Still, we believe they give a good first indication of the likely result."
Key Quotes
"The BBC/ITV Exit Poll has 316 for Conservatives, 239 for Labour, 58 for SNP, 10 for the Liberal Democrats with 2 for Green, 2 for UKIP, 4 for PC and 19 for others (mostly N.I. seats + perhaps the Respect party)."
"This puts us in Band 1 of our scenarios where it is most likely for the conservatives to put something together even on their own or with the help of the Liberal Democrats or DUP."
"This is just an exit poll, which has an error of around 20 seats either way for the major parties. It could take a few variations in the actual results to change the conclusion of tonight, but this is positive news for the conservatives and GBP is reacting in a similar fashion so far."
"All this being said, even though exit polls have proven to be remarkably accurate in recent UK elections, we still need to treat these numbers with some degree of caution, as there are many finely-balanced constituencies and smaller parties in this election. Still, we believe they give a good first indication of the likely result."