8 May 2015
US April NFP expected to rebound to 230K – Capital Economics
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, explains that the weak NFP print in March doesn’t suggest a deterioration in labour market conditions, and further forecasts April payrolls at 230k.
Key Quotes
“We don’t think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (13.30 BST) in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels and our econometric model points to a 230,000 increase in April.”
“Even if mining employment continues to fall at between 10,000 and 20,000 a month and the strong dollar puts a lid on gains in manufacturing employment, the services and construction sectors should generate enough net new jobs to ensure that non-farm payrolls continue to rise at between 200,000 and 250,000 a month. That would be sufficient to keep the unemployment rate going down.”
Key Quotes
“We don’t think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (13.30 BST) in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels and our econometric model points to a 230,000 increase in April.”
“Even if mining employment continues to fall at between 10,000 and 20,000 a month and the strong dollar puts a lid on gains in manufacturing employment, the services and construction sectors should generate enough net new jobs to ensure that non-farm payrolls continue to rise at between 200,000 and 250,000 a month. That would be sufficient to keep the unemployment rate going down.”