8 May 2015
US NFP rebound expected, forecast in line with consensus – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team expects April US NFP to return back to its trend, and further forecast a above 200K gain for payrolls and a dip in unemployment rate to 5.4%.
Key Quotes
“The March US payrolls report brought a major disappointment as hiring slowed to just 126 000, down from 264 000 in February. The question is whether this is only a temporary setback, partly due to weather related factors or is the momentum in the US labour market slowing?”
“The consensus is looking for an improvement in April with payrolls growth expected to return back to its trend (230 000). Initial jobless claims dropped again lower, reaching new multi-year lows. Other US eco data showed a mixed picture. A weather related rebound is likely in several sectors, but this might be (partly?) offset by continued weakness in manufacturing and mining due to the strong dollar and lower oil price.”
“As a result, we expect the payrolls to jump back above 200 000, broadly in line with the consensus estimate and confirming that the labour market recovery remains on track.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.4% following a stabilization in March. Also for the unemployment rate we have no reasons to distance ourselves from the consensus.”
“Finally, also the average hourly earnings will be closely watched. A 0.2% M/M increase is forecast, which should push the annual rate up to 2.3% Y/Y (from 2.1% Y/Y in March). If confirmed, this will be the strongest increase since August 2013. For earnings, we remain quite optimistic too.”
Key Quotes
“The March US payrolls report brought a major disappointment as hiring slowed to just 126 000, down from 264 000 in February. The question is whether this is only a temporary setback, partly due to weather related factors or is the momentum in the US labour market slowing?”
“The consensus is looking for an improvement in April with payrolls growth expected to return back to its trend (230 000). Initial jobless claims dropped again lower, reaching new multi-year lows. Other US eco data showed a mixed picture. A weather related rebound is likely in several sectors, but this might be (partly?) offset by continued weakness in manufacturing and mining due to the strong dollar and lower oil price.”
“As a result, we expect the payrolls to jump back above 200 000, broadly in line with the consensus estimate and confirming that the labour market recovery remains on track.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.4% following a stabilization in March. Also for the unemployment rate we have no reasons to distance ourselves from the consensus.”
“Finally, also the average hourly earnings will be closely watched. A 0.2% M/M increase is forecast, which should push the annual rate up to 2.3% Y/Y (from 2.1% Y/Y in March). If confirmed, this will be the strongest increase since August 2013. For earnings, we remain quite optimistic too.”