13 May 2015
US retail sales stays subdued, June rate hike isn’t happening anymore - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, sees diminishing chances of a June rate hike by the Fed after US retail sales data resulted in a much weaker than expected outcome, with ex-Autos data showing a flat growth (expected 0.5% mom).
Key Quotes
“US retail sales for April are softer than hoped, coming in flat on the month versus a 0.2%MoM consensus. Admittedly, the March figure was revised higher by two tenths of a percentage point, but the overall story is one of subdued spending by consumers.”
“Indeed, strip out the volatile components of autos, gasoline and building materials to come up with the so called “control” group – this has a better fit with overall consumer spending trends – and we saw flat growth versus a consensus forecast of 0.5% growth.”
“Consequently, we still aren’t really seeing the big recovery that was anticipated in the wake of the weather depressed first quarter. This just really reinforces the view that a June hike isn’t happening and that September looks the more probable start point.”
Key Quotes
“US retail sales for April are softer than hoped, coming in flat on the month versus a 0.2%MoM consensus. Admittedly, the March figure was revised higher by two tenths of a percentage point, but the overall story is one of subdued spending by consumers.”
“Indeed, strip out the volatile components of autos, gasoline and building materials to come up with the so called “control” group – this has a better fit with overall consumer spending trends – and we saw flat growth versus a consensus forecast of 0.5% growth.”
“Consequently, we still aren’t really seeing the big recovery that was anticipated in the wake of the weather depressed first quarter. This just really reinforces the view that a June hike isn’t happening and that September looks the more probable start point.”