19 May 2015
Key events coming up - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the forthcoming key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"Today sees the RBA minutes for May, which will be of slightly less interest than usual given we had the Statement on Monetary Policy so recently. There certainly appears to be a gap opening up in the market view on the RBA: some say they are done and the next move will be up. I continue to say I’ve heard that song before, and it was wrong before, and there are more cuts to come."
"The UK has CPI, seen 0.4% MoM/0.0% YoY/1.0% YoY core. PPI is also expected to show the same lack of inflation pressures (0.8% MoM/0.1% YoY core). Indeed, ex-MPC member Blanchflower has just pointed out that fresh austerity policies will have a negative impact on growth, and might even mean the BOE has to cut rates next, not raise, and restart QE."
"The German ZEW survey is not key for its ability to predict the economy (given its survey group of economists like me): but it will give us a first chance to see how much market confidence has been knocked by the surge in EUR and Bund yields. I’ll hazard more than the consensus for a decline to 68.0 from 70.2. Europe also sees final April CPI(consensus: 0.2% MoM and 0.0% YoY/0.6% YoY core)."
"Back in Asia, Indonesia has a rate decision, where only 2 of 16 analysts are going for a 25bp cut to 7.25%, the rest assuming ‘on hold’. The BI recently expressed it will use data as a guide to rate decisions from now on (which would be helpful); and with core CPI sticky at 5.0% YoY despite a slowdown in GDP growth, that suggests rates should remain unchanged. Sorry Indonesia, no stimulus for you, at least."
"After the recent flurry of weak US data, any downside surprises in US housing starts (consensus: 9.9% MoM) would again be negative for USD – but positive for those thinking rates never go up."
Key Quotes:
"Today sees the RBA minutes for May, which will be of slightly less interest than usual given we had the Statement on Monetary Policy so recently. There certainly appears to be a gap opening up in the market view on the RBA: some say they are done and the next move will be up. I continue to say I’ve heard that song before, and it was wrong before, and there are more cuts to come."
"The UK has CPI, seen 0.4% MoM/0.0% YoY/1.0% YoY core. PPI is also expected to show the same lack of inflation pressures (0.8% MoM/0.1% YoY core). Indeed, ex-MPC member Blanchflower has just pointed out that fresh austerity policies will have a negative impact on growth, and might even mean the BOE has to cut rates next, not raise, and restart QE."
"The German ZEW survey is not key for its ability to predict the economy (given its survey group of economists like me): but it will give us a first chance to see how much market confidence has been knocked by the surge in EUR and Bund yields. I’ll hazard more than the consensus for a decline to 68.0 from 70.2. Europe also sees final April CPI(consensus: 0.2% MoM and 0.0% YoY/0.6% YoY core)."
"Back in Asia, Indonesia has a rate decision, where only 2 of 16 analysts are going for a 25bp cut to 7.25%, the rest assuming ‘on hold’. The BI recently expressed it will use data as a guide to rate decisions from now on (which would be helpful); and with core CPI sticky at 5.0% YoY despite a slowdown in GDP growth, that suggests rates should remain unchanged. Sorry Indonesia, no stimulus for you, at least."
"After the recent flurry of weak US data, any downside surprises in US housing starts (consensus: 9.9% MoM) would again be negative for USD – but positive for those thinking rates never go up."