27 May 2015
NZD: Fonterra’s key announcement eyed - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - According to the ANZ Research Team, Fonterra’s announcement of its opening milk price for the 2015/16 season is the main focal point for domestic markets over the next 24 hours or so.
Key Quotes
"We don’t know the exact timing, and there is a chance we may have to wait until tomorrow morning, but Fonterra’s announcement of its opening milk price for the 2015/16 season is certainly the main focal point for domestic markets over the next 24 hours or so."
"As global dairy prices have languished, analysts have been revising down their expectations for where Fonterra will pitch this opening price. Our expectation is around $5.00-$5.25/kg MS, which would likely translate into an opening advance in the mid-$3/kg MS."
"On top of low deferred payments from the poor 2014/15 season, this will leave many budgets in the red, and highlights a considerable cash flow squeeze in the industry."
"In fact, what we feel is underappreciated is that this cash flow strain could last into 2017. The dairy sector is at the vanguard of the shifting risk profile we see facing the New Zealand economy. The broad story still looks good. However, downside risks are now becoming more pronounced, particularly when you add other recent commodity price falls (forestry, wool and lamb) to the mix."
"Ultimately, it reinforces the economy’s need for a lower NZD. Clearly there were moves in this direction overnight, with currency markets reacting to what was generally better US dataflow, and the NZD is now sitting at key support levels."
"New Zealand exporters will be hoping that the improvement in US data continues, although as Fed Vice Chair Fischer stated overnight, the Fed will also take the global growth backdrop into account when it comes to setting US policy, and that only just reinforces the likelihood of a gradual Fed normalisation."
Key Quotes
"We don’t know the exact timing, and there is a chance we may have to wait until tomorrow morning, but Fonterra’s announcement of its opening milk price for the 2015/16 season is certainly the main focal point for domestic markets over the next 24 hours or so."
"As global dairy prices have languished, analysts have been revising down their expectations for where Fonterra will pitch this opening price. Our expectation is around $5.00-$5.25/kg MS, which would likely translate into an opening advance in the mid-$3/kg MS."
"On top of low deferred payments from the poor 2014/15 season, this will leave many budgets in the red, and highlights a considerable cash flow squeeze in the industry."
"In fact, what we feel is underappreciated is that this cash flow strain could last into 2017. The dairy sector is at the vanguard of the shifting risk profile we see facing the New Zealand economy. The broad story still looks good. However, downside risks are now becoming more pronounced, particularly when you add other recent commodity price falls (forestry, wool and lamb) to the mix."
"Ultimately, it reinforces the economy’s need for a lower NZD. Clearly there were moves in this direction overnight, with currency markets reacting to what was generally better US dataflow, and the NZD is now sitting at key support levels."
"New Zealand exporters will be hoping that the improvement in US data continues, although as Fed Vice Chair Fischer stated overnight, the Fed will also take the global growth backdrop into account when it comes to setting US policy, and that only just reinforces the likelihood of a gradual Fed normalisation."