27 May 2015
Westpac MNI China CSI: Chinese consumers still anxious
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator, known as Westpac MNI China CSI, was unchanged at 111.1 in May, which is 8.4% lower than a year ago and 8.7% below the long run average, Westpac reports.
Key Quotes
"The absolute level of the CSI indicates that Chinese consumers are still anxious about their personal financial wellbeing and the economy more broadly, despite the major shift in the policy stance since late last year. Note that the 100bp cut in the required reserve ratio (April 20) is fully captured by this survey, whereas the 25bp lending rate cut announced on May 10 came at the end of our sampling period and is thus only partially reflected in these results."
"Three of the five components that go into the calculation of the Westpac MNI China CSI decreased from their April levels. The major negative impulse came through in expected business conditions, while expected family finances and ‘time to buy a major household item’ improved. Current business conditions (not part of the composite, but closely correlated with the PMIs and IP) moved lower, consistent with the weak data flow of late."
"The May headline result was biased lower by a dramatic shift towards pessimism among the 55-64 age group (~15% of the sample). Excluding this cohort, the Westpac MNI China CSI increased by 1.9pts from 111.8 in April to 113.8 in May. It is encouraging that the younger cohorts that are most active in the twin processes of household formation and durables accumulation, and are thus more likely to take advantage of policy incentives, are more optimistic than their elder."
Key Quotes
"The absolute level of the CSI indicates that Chinese consumers are still anxious about their personal financial wellbeing and the economy more broadly, despite the major shift in the policy stance since late last year. Note that the 100bp cut in the required reserve ratio (April 20) is fully captured by this survey, whereas the 25bp lending rate cut announced on May 10 came at the end of our sampling period and is thus only partially reflected in these results."
"Three of the five components that go into the calculation of the Westpac MNI China CSI decreased from their April levels. The major negative impulse came through in expected business conditions, while expected family finances and ‘time to buy a major household item’ improved. Current business conditions (not part of the composite, but closely correlated with the PMIs and IP) moved lower, consistent with the weak data flow of late."
"The May headline result was biased lower by a dramatic shift towards pessimism among the 55-64 age group (~15% of the sample). Excluding this cohort, the Westpac MNI China CSI increased by 1.9pts from 111.8 in April to 113.8 in May. It is encouraging that the younger cohorts that are most active in the twin processes of household formation and durables accumulation, and are thus more likely to take advantage of policy incentives, are more optimistic than their elder."