5 Jun 2015
US payrolls and its effect on Fed rate hike expectations – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alan Ruskin, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, shares the case of Fed rate liftoff expectations and the possible impact on the same from today’s US NFP data results.
Key Quotes
“Currently Fed fund futures predict a 51% probability of a Fed tightening in September. How the data shifts this probability will be crucial for FX. That September is seen as the first possible tightening by the Fed and there are two meetings before then, detracts significantly from the sensitivity to the data, even as the Fed notes policy is data dependent!”
“Any payroll number close to the 3m payroll average at 190k or more, with an unemployment rate of 5.4% or less, will keep a Fed tightening in September on track. It would probably need a payroll number either side of 150K or 250K to get the market really excited whereby Fed expectations/probabilities start to change materially.”
Key Quotes
“Currently Fed fund futures predict a 51% probability of a Fed tightening in September. How the data shifts this probability will be crucial for FX. That September is seen as the first possible tightening by the Fed and there are two meetings before then, detracts significantly from the sensitivity to the data, even as the Fed notes policy is data dependent!”
“Any payroll number close to the 3m payroll average at 190k or more, with an unemployment rate of 5.4% or less, will keep a Fed tightening in September on track. It would probably need a payroll number either side of 150K or 250K to get the market really excited whereby Fed expectations/probabilities start to change materially.”