1 Jul 2015
AUD/USD: fade the up ticks towards 0.80 – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at BAML have recommended selling the pair on strength towards the 0.8000 key level.
Key Quotes
“The AUD has been relatively stable versus the USD and on a trade weighted basis in June, ending the quarter close to our forecast of 0.77”.
“Medium-term, we continue to expect AUD to weaken due to policy divergence with the US, weak commodity export prices and a decline in capital inflows to the resource sector”.
“The fundamental "big picture" remains negative for the AUD and we believe the exchange rate will need to stay below “fair value” if it is to provide any degree of support to the economy”.
“The RBA will continue to use its policy levers if needed to achieve this. We expect AUD/USD to end 2015 at 0.73 and our 2016 at 0.68. We believe any move above 0.80 would offer a good opportunity to sell AUD”.
Key Quotes
“The AUD has been relatively stable versus the USD and on a trade weighted basis in June, ending the quarter close to our forecast of 0.77”.
“Medium-term, we continue to expect AUD to weaken due to policy divergence with the US, weak commodity export prices and a decline in capital inflows to the resource sector”.
“The fundamental "big picture" remains negative for the AUD and we believe the exchange rate will need to stay below “fair value” if it is to provide any degree of support to the economy”.
“The RBA will continue to use its policy levers if needed to achieve this. We expect AUD/USD to end 2015 at 0.73 and our 2016 at 0.68. We believe any move above 0.80 would offer a good opportunity to sell AUD”.