3 Jul 2015
Recent US data favouring a September Fed rate hike – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Signe Roed-Frederiksen, notes that the above 200K three month average of US payrolls leaves the door open for a September Fed rate hike.
Key Quotes
“Recent US data has generally supported our view that US growth should pick up in the current and coming quarters. If our forecast is right, this should support job growth at an above 200,000 average in coming months, push the unemployment rate lower and put upward pressure on wages. Notably, our US wage indicator continues to suggest a substantial pickup in wage inflation in coming months.”
“The three-month average in private payrolls is now at 221,000 and, in itself, the June employment report leaves the door open for a first rate hike in September. The big unknown is how Greece will develop and if financial conditions worsen over the summer this is likely to postpone a first rate hike. In addition, the fall in the growth pace of average hourly earnings also takes some pressure off the Fed but these data are volatile and we could easily see a rebound in July.”
Key Quotes
“Recent US data has generally supported our view that US growth should pick up in the current and coming quarters. If our forecast is right, this should support job growth at an above 200,000 average in coming months, push the unemployment rate lower and put upward pressure on wages. Notably, our US wage indicator continues to suggest a substantial pickup in wage inflation in coming months.”
“The three-month average in private payrolls is now at 221,000 and, in itself, the June employment report leaves the door open for a first rate hike in September. The big unknown is how Greece will develop and if financial conditions worsen over the summer this is likely to postpone a first rate hike. In addition, the fall in the growth pace of average hourly earnings also takes some pressure off the Fed but these data are volatile and we could easily see a rebound in July.”