6 Jul 2015
The probability of Grexit has increased - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Following the latest events in Greece, ANZ Research Team notes that surely the probability of a Greek exit has now increased.
Key Quotes
"Indications are that the majority of Greeks have voted ‘No’ at the critical referendum held over the past 24 hours."
"Many believed that a ‘Yes’ result would have seen negotiations quickly restart. It would also likely have seen the ECB extend its ELA assistance to Greek banks and hence been relatively positive for markets overall (at least in the first instance). But now we are left waiting to see how creditors and the ECB will react."
"A number of European leaders were adamant that a ‘No’ vote would not strengthen Greece’s position at the negotiating table, making future negotiations difficult."
"While the German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande are meeting tomorrow, as yet, there is no planned emergency meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers."
"The ECB may also find it difficult to extend (or even maintain) the ELA if a deal between Greece and its creditors is not close at hand."
"If the ECB does not extend additional ELA it is very difficult to see how the banks can open on Tuesday as planned and the economic crisis will intensify. Surely the probability of a Greek exit has now increased."
Key Quotes
"Indications are that the majority of Greeks have voted ‘No’ at the critical referendum held over the past 24 hours."
"Many believed that a ‘Yes’ result would have seen negotiations quickly restart. It would also likely have seen the ECB extend its ELA assistance to Greek banks and hence been relatively positive for markets overall (at least in the first instance). But now we are left waiting to see how creditors and the ECB will react."
"A number of European leaders were adamant that a ‘No’ vote would not strengthen Greece’s position at the negotiating table, making future negotiations difficult."
"While the German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande are meeting tomorrow, as yet, there is no planned emergency meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers."
"The ECB may also find it difficult to extend (or even maintain) the ELA if a deal between Greece and its creditors is not close at hand."
"If the ECB does not extend additional ELA it is very difficult to see how the banks can open on Tuesday as planned and the economic crisis will intensify. Surely the probability of a Greek exit has now increased."