14 Jul 2015
Key events coming up - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"We start in Australia with the NAB business confidencesurvey, perhaps not of huge significance, but a further input into the RBA’s thinking as it muses over the need for more monetary stimulus. China may also release its monthly lending data.
Then we have UK CPI, which is seen 0.1% MoM headline and 0.9% YoY core: nothing for the BOE to be worried about there. PPI inflation is also expected to be benign at 0.0% MoM core and 0.1% YoY.
In Europe we see industrial production (consensus: 0.2% MoM) and the German ZEW survey, where the market expects a dip to 60.0, though given the recent Greek drama there may again have been more of a negative response, at least in this month’s reading.
In the US we get the NFIB small business confidence survey (consensus: 98.5), and then benchmark retail sales. After last month’s bumper 1.2% reading the expectation is for a far more moderate 0.3% MoM print today. With Greece and China(?) now ‘sorted’, any upside surprises and the market will be thinking that tomorrow’s Yellen testimony may up the hawkish ante, in which case it’s emerging markets who will be screaming. However, another disappointing and frustrating retail result would see the Fed pulling a ‘Scream’ face, but with hands out at 45 degrees, and shoulders raised far higher (i.e., more of a long, consternated sigh.)"
Key Quotes:
"We start in Australia with the NAB business confidencesurvey, perhaps not of huge significance, but a further input into the RBA’s thinking as it muses over the need for more monetary stimulus. China may also release its monthly lending data.
Then we have UK CPI, which is seen 0.1% MoM headline and 0.9% YoY core: nothing for the BOE to be worried about there. PPI inflation is also expected to be benign at 0.0% MoM core and 0.1% YoY.
In Europe we see industrial production (consensus: 0.2% MoM) and the German ZEW survey, where the market expects a dip to 60.0, though given the recent Greek drama there may again have been more of a negative response, at least in this month’s reading.
In the US we get the NFIB small business confidence survey (consensus: 98.5), and then benchmark retail sales. After last month’s bumper 1.2% reading the expectation is for a far more moderate 0.3% MoM print today. With Greece and China(?) now ‘sorted’, any upside surprises and the market will be thinking that tomorrow’s Yellen testimony may up the hawkish ante, in which case it’s emerging markets who will be screaming. However, another disappointing and frustrating retail result would see the Fed pulling a ‘Scream’ face, but with hands out at 45 degrees, and shoulders raised far higher (i.e., more of a long, consternated sigh.)"