14 Jul 2015
EUR/HUF revised higher to 322 in 6-m – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Hungarian forint is expected to weaken towards the 322 area in a 6-month view, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
Key Quotes
“We revise our Forint forecasts owing to the increase in Euro area rates, a deterioration in Greece-related risks and following the NBH’s new easing measures”.
“Our medium-term view on the Forint remains moderately bearish. On the macro side, the ongoing reduction in the still-substantial stock of corporate FX debt will continue to fuel demand for FX”.
“But the current account surplus and solid growth will offset some of the Forint-negative factors. On the policy side, the household debt exchange has increased the NBH's tolerance for Forint volatility and weakness”.
“Additional rate cuts and, later in 2015, more easing resulting from a cap on NBH deposit facilities will also reduce support for the Forint”.
“In addition, the government’s policy direction of export-driven growth indicates a preference for a gradual depreciation in the medium term, within the balance sheet limits imposed by the still-sizeable stock of FX public debt”.
“We are revising our EUR/HUF forecast to 315, 322 and 325 in 3, 6 and 12 months,
Key Quotes
“We revise our Forint forecasts owing to the increase in Euro area rates, a deterioration in Greece-related risks and following the NBH’s new easing measures”.
“Our medium-term view on the Forint remains moderately bearish. On the macro side, the ongoing reduction in the still-substantial stock of corporate FX debt will continue to fuel demand for FX”.
“But the current account surplus and solid growth will offset some of the Forint-negative factors. On the policy side, the household debt exchange has increased the NBH's tolerance for Forint volatility and weakness”.
“Additional rate cuts and, later in 2015, more easing resulting from a cap on NBH deposit facilities will also reduce support for the Forint”.
“In addition, the government’s policy direction of export-driven growth indicates a preference for a gradual depreciation in the medium term, within the balance sheet limits imposed by the still-sizeable stock of FX public debt”.
“We are revising our EUR/HUF forecast to 315, 322 and 325 in 3, 6 and 12 months,