5 Sep 2013
Flash: What to expect out of the ECB today? – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - In terms of the ECB, our European economists expect another challenging press conference today, note Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.
Key quotes
“With the longest euro area recession on record having ended in Q2 and all key activity indicators rising, the credibility of the ECB forecast of an easing bias “for an extended period” is being questioned.”
“We expect the ECB to acknowledge the recent improved data, but these will be interpreted as being in line with a baseline forecast of ‘gradual’ economic recovery that still faces downside risks.”
“We expect no changes to the staff forecasts for growth or inflation in 2014, and the Council view of the recovery is unlikely to have changed appreciably. With this in mind, our economists expect the forward guidance to remain unchanged, but the question remains whether or not the market will be any more inclined to believe the forward guidance this month.”
Key quotes
“With the longest euro area recession on record having ended in Q2 and all key activity indicators rising, the credibility of the ECB forecast of an easing bias “for an extended period” is being questioned.”
“We expect the ECB to acknowledge the recent improved data, but these will be interpreted as being in line with a baseline forecast of ‘gradual’ economic recovery that still faces downside risks.”
“We expect no changes to the staff forecasts for growth or inflation in 2014, and the Council view of the recovery is unlikely to have changed appreciably. With this in mind, our economists expect the forward guidance to remain unchanged, but the question remains whether or not the market will be any more inclined to believe the forward guidance this month.”