31 Jul 2015
EUR/USD forecast: focus on EMU’s CPI – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD remains in the low-1.0900s so far ahead of the key preliminary inflation figures in the euro area due later.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “remains under pressure following its recent failure at the 1.1124/29 Fibo resistance. The demise of 1.10 puts it on the defensive in the range. Intraday rallies are likely to struggle 1.0985 for a slide back to the 1.0819/04 May low and uptrend. Failure here is needed to trigger losses towards 1.0560/1.0447, the base of the 30 year channel and recent low”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added “Rate differentials exerted additional weight on the EUR-USD on Thursday as bund yields softened partially with no upside surprises for Germany’s July CPI readings. Look towards EZ inflation readings for further cues. Elsewhere, with the Greek situation likely to remain protracted (note chatter of an emergency party congress by the ruling Syriza party in September), EUR-USD may in the interim continue to mull the 1.0900 support with 1.1000 still serving as an immediate ceiling”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “remains under pressure following its recent failure at the 1.1124/29 Fibo resistance. The demise of 1.10 puts it on the defensive in the range. Intraday rallies are likely to struggle 1.0985 for a slide back to the 1.0819/04 May low and uptrend. Failure here is needed to trigger losses towards 1.0560/1.0447, the base of the 30 year channel and recent low”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added “Rate differentials exerted additional weight on the EUR-USD on Thursday as bund yields softened partially with no upside surprises for Germany’s July CPI readings. Look towards EZ inflation readings for further cues. Elsewhere, with the Greek situation likely to remain protracted (note chatter of an emergency party congress by the ruling Syriza party in September), EUR-USD may in the interim continue to mull the 1.0900 support with 1.1000 still serving as an immediate ceiling”.