5 Aug 2015
Sep? Need more data that time can offer FOMC - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that while US GDP growth has re-accelerated after the winter, business investment is falling.
Key Quotes:
"The strong dollar and the low oil price are hurting the US manufacturing and mining sector. Meanwhile, the recent decline in oil prices has led to a decrease in market-based measures of inflation compensation and a fall in longer-term USD rates.
We think that the dovish majority in the FOMC – note that the median voter in the Committee is a dove, not a centrist – would like to see more broad-based evidence of strength in the economy and ‘reasonable confidence’ that inflation is moving back to target than the data are likely to provide before the September meeting.
Register to the live coverage and trade the NonFarm Payrolls with Bednarik, Pinkert and Elam. We are Forex!
And even if moderate doves would be willing to hike in September, Chair Yellen may prefer to have a unanimous vote for lift-off, which might not be feasible until December."
Key Quotes:
"The strong dollar and the low oil price are hurting the US manufacturing and mining sector. Meanwhile, the recent decline in oil prices has led to a decrease in market-based measures of inflation compensation and a fall in longer-term USD rates.
We think that the dovish majority in the FOMC – note that the median voter in the Committee is a dove, not a centrist – would like to see more broad-based evidence of strength in the economy and ‘reasonable confidence’ that inflation is moving back to target than the data are likely to provide before the September meeting.
Register to the live coverage and trade the NonFarm Payrolls with Bednarik, Pinkert and Elam. We are Forex!
And even if moderate doves would be willing to hike in September, Chair Yellen may prefer to have a unanimous vote for lift-off, which might not be feasible until December."