12 Aug 2015
RUB could pick up pace in the upcoming months – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at BAML, the demand for the Russian currency is expected to gather further traction in the next months.
Key Quotes
“We keep our current RUB55/USD forecast unchanged for now”.
“Despite the likely short-term pressure from capital outflows and forced EXD deleveraging, the RUB could start receiving support from the likely reversal of massive FX positions in Russia”.
“As a result, Russia has been buying FX since 3Q13 and throughout 2014. Last year, this buying was rather aggressive”.
“According to the CBR, the Russian population and corporates bought US$30.4bn (only FX cash) in 2014, including over US$15bn in 4Q alone”.
“In 1Q 2015, banks and corporates actually started to sell, with net selling reaching US$2.8bn. Nevertheless, massive FX positions remain and will likely be reversed with a much weaker RUB”.
Key Quotes
“We keep our current RUB55/USD forecast unchanged for now”.
“Despite the likely short-term pressure from capital outflows and forced EXD deleveraging, the RUB could start receiving support from the likely reversal of massive FX positions in Russia”.
“As a result, Russia has been buying FX since 3Q13 and throughout 2014. Last year, this buying was rather aggressive”.
“According to the CBR, the Russian population and corporates bought US$30.4bn (only FX cash) in 2014, including over US$15bn in 4Q alone”.
“In 1Q 2015, banks and corporates actually started to sell, with net selling reaching US$2.8bn. Nevertheless, massive FX positions remain and will likely be reversed with a much weaker RUB”.