18 Aug 2015
Kiwi flies as Russia lifts NZ dairy ban, UK CPI - key
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The news of Russia partially lifting the ban on NZ dairy companies offered the much-needed impetus to the New Zealand dollar, driving it highs just ahead of 0.66 barrier. While its OZ sister kept the range below 0.74 handle following the release of RBA minutes. USD/JPY was trading listless near 124.50 amid a data-dry Asian session.
Key headlines in Asia
China House Price Index up to -3.7% in July from previous -4.9%
RBA minutes: AUD/USD may fall further when Fed hikes rates
PBOC Yuan reference rate set at 6.3969 vs prior close 6.3947
Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD
The New Zealand dollar emerged the biggest gainer across the FX board during the data-empty Asian session. The Kiwi extended gains for the second straight session and rallied nearly 40 pips to 0.6600 in early moves after Russia announced partial lift on the ban imposed on NZ dairy which had been operating for 2 years. Russia now decided to allow 29 New Zealand companies to sell dairy products to Russia, raising hopes for New Zealand's embattled dairy sector.
While the Aussie was seen slightly bid around 0.7370 following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes which maintained its upbeat tone on the AUD level, however, signaled that AUD/USD could take a hit when the Fed begins to hike rates. The dollar-yen pair was in a flat-lining, capped below 124.50 levels as markets await fresh fundamentals from the US for further momentum on the pair.
Asian markets traded in the red zone as the latest upbeat macro data from the US added to Sept rate hike expectations weighing on equities across the board. The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 trades lower by 0.14% at 20591. The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX is losing -0.37% at 5348 points. While Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index is down -0.15% at 23779 and mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite is deep in the red at 3935, recording a -1.46% loss on the day.
Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP
A host of key economic data from the UK is scheduled for release later in the European session with the UK inflation figures for July to remain the main highlight.
The market suggests UK CPI inflation remained unchanged at 0% in July. The core CPI, a less volatile gauge stripped of energy and food prices, is estimated to have stayed at 0.8% - the lowest level in fourteen years.
Despite expectations pointing to no change in inflation, notable falls in oil and petrol prices in July this year, compared on annual basis, suggest inflation may have slipped back below zero again, pushing back the Bank of England (BoE) rate lift-off this year.
Attention also remains on Greece, as the big ECB repayment and Greek parliamentary vote looms later this week just as the embattled-nation may be heading into snap elections next month.
August 20 is the very day when Greece is scheduled to honor a big €3.5 billion bond repayment to the European Central Bank (ECB).
We have quite an eventful US session later today, with building permits and housing data from the US on the cards. In June, the number of new housing starts, a proxy for residential investment, rose to 1.174 million units, marking the highest level since November 2007. Now, forecasters are saying the figure increased to 1.186 million units in July.
Economists at Deutsche Bank explain the gauge leads housing starts by six months. "At its current level, the former is consistent with starts of about 1.6 million units."
EUR/USD Technicals
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FX Street explained, “Technically, the pair holds around the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, from 1.0847 to 1.1213 at 1.1075 with a short term negative tone, as in the 1 hour chart, the price was rejected by its 100 SMA and holds now below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators present a tepid bearish tone in negative territory.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA turned south around the 23.6% retracement of the same rally, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes in negative territory, supporting the shorter term view. Should the price extend below 1.1060, the downside is open for further declines down to the 1.0980 price zone.”
Key headlines in Asia
China House Price Index up to -3.7% in July from previous -4.9%
RBA minutes: AUD/USD may fall further when Fed hikes rates
PBOC Yuan reference rate set at 6.3969 vs prior close 6.3947
Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD
The New Zealand dollar emerged the biggest gainer across the FX board during the data-empty Asian session. The Kiwi extended gains for the second straight session and rallied nearly 40 pips to 0.6600 in early moves after Russia announced partial lift on the ban imposed on NZ dairy which had been operating for 2 years. Russia now decided to allow 29 New Zealand companies to sell dairy products to Russia, raising hopes for New Zealand's embattled dairy sector.
While the Aussie was seen slightly bid around 0.7370 following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes which maintained its upbeat tone on the AUD level, however, signaled that AUD/USD could take a hit when the Fed begins to hike rates. The dollar-yen pair was in a flat-lining, capped below 124.50 levels as markets await fresh fundamentals from the US for further momentum on the pair.
Asian markets traded in the red zone as the latest upbeat macro data from the US added to Sept rate hike expectations weighing on equities across the board. The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 trades lower by 0.14% at 20591. The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX is losing -0.37% at 5348 points. While Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index is down -0.15% at 23779 and mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite is deep in the red at 3935, recording a -1.46% loss on the day.
Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP
A host of key economic data from the UK is scheduled for release later in the European session with the UK inflation figures for July to remain the main highlight.
The market suggests UK CPI inflation remained unchanged at 0% in July. The core CPI, a less volatile gauge stripped of energy and food prices, is estimated to have stayed at 0.8% - the lowest level in fourteen years.
Despite expectations pointing to no change in inflation, notable falls in oil and petrol prices in July this year, compared on annual basis, suggest inflation may have slipped back below zero again, pushing back the Bank of England (BoE) rate lift-off this year.
Attention also remains on Greece, as the big ECB repayment and Greek parliamentary vote looms later this week just as the embattled-nation may be heading into snap elections next month.
August 20 is the very day when Greece is scheduled to honor a big €3.5 billion bond repayment to the European Central Bank (ECB).
We have quite an eventful US session later today, with building permits and housing data from the US on the cards. In June, the number of new housing starts, a proxy for residential investment, rose to 1.174 million units, marking the highest level since November 2007. Now, forecasters are saying the figure increased to 1.186 million units in July.
Economists at Deutsche Bank explain the gauge leads housing starts by six months. "At its current level, the former is consistent with starts of about 1.6 million units."
EUR/USD Technicals
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FX Street explained, “Technically, the pair holds around the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, from 1.0847 to 1.1213 at 1.1075 with a short term negative tone, as in the 1 hour chart, the price was rejected by its 100 SMA and holds now below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators present a tepid bearish tone in negative territory.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA turned south around the 23.6% retracement of the same rally, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes in negative territory, supporting the shorter term view. Should the price extend below 1.1060, the downside is open for further declines down to the 1.0980 price zone.”