18 Aug 2015
EUR/USD forecast: USD dynamics prevail – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair is extending its weakness on Tuesday, testing the mid-1.10s against the backdrop of an empty docket in Euroland.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has pulled back into and so far held the 1.1075/1.1035 zone of support and should now recover and challenge the 1.1216 July high. The Elliott wave count is suggesting scope for a move towards the 1.1440/68 June high. We note the 200 day ma at 1.1356. While we would allow for a rise back to the 1.1350/1.1468 resistance area we look for the market to fail here and resume its longer term down trend”.
Analysts at Danske Bank have added “EUR/USD should now start to take its cue from relative rates moving in favour of the dollar ahead of a first Fed hike. This follows as we stress that while the upcoming Fed hiking cycle will be shallow in a historical context, the market is not prepared for an autumn rate rise currently. We now see the cross at 1.08 in 1M”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has pulled back into and so far held the 1.1075/1.1035 zone of support and should now recover and challenge the 1.1216 July high. The Elliott wave count is suggesting scope for a move towards the 1.1440/68 June high. We note the 200 day ma at 1.1356. While we would allow for a rise back to the 1.1350/1.1468 resistance area we look for the market to fail here and resume its longer term down trend”.
Analysts at Danske Bank have added “EUR/USD should now start to take its cue from relative rates moving in favour of the dollar ahead of a first Fed hike. This follows as we stress that while the upcoming Fed hiking cycle will be shallow in a historical context, the market is not prepared for an autumn rate rise currently. We now see the cross at 1.08 in 1M”.