26 Aug 2015
USD/CAD: heavy here? We are at SMA100 resistance
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is currently trading with a high of 1.3350 and a low of 1.3249.
WTI has been making its way lower, so far trading at $38.57 the low with a high of $39.88 with a better offered tone on the session. Yesterday's API propped up the price with a rather large 7.3m bbls inventory drawdown, vs today's result of -5.452m vs1.45m expected. This was not a true market reflection of inventories expectations, but nevertheless we saw a wobble between 39.64-38.57 the low on the 30 min stick on the release of the data as the market continues with the bearish theme in commodity prices, despite lower inventories. WTI currently trades on $39 support.
Subsequently, USD/CAD is mixed on the data while Fed's Dudley and general sentiment on timings on a Fed hike is being pushed back into 2016 that is weighing on the greenback. Dudley was has said that "International developments have raised downside risks…a September hike seems less compelling to me that it was a few weeks ago…important not to overreact to market development." However, it was the Durable Goods Orders that has been the real catalyst for a move in the commodity sector where USD/CAD rallied from 1.3250 low to 1.3286 on the 30 min stick and has remained better bid since and supported on supply 1.3275 the low post the data.
USD/CAD is technically heavy below SMA100
Technically, analysts at TD Securities explained that their daily fair value estimate from last Friday's close sits well below spot around 1.3110. However, they allow room for a drift higher and hold a Q3 target for 1.3300. So, the recent surge in prices may be seen as slightly heavy on that analyses within a volatile commodities currency space, with 1.3311 and the SMA 100 as a strong resistance level.
1.3279 is the pivot as a support ahead of 1.3202, 1.3068, 1.2991 and 1.2951 the low for August. 1.2800 comes as a triple top monthly resistance area on the downside as an appropriate support level also. On continued upside, 1.3413 comes as R1 and 1.3490 as R2.
WTI has been making its way lower, so far trading at $38.57 the low with a high of $39.88 with a better offered tone on the session. Yesterday's API propped up the price with a rather large 7.3m bbls inventory drawdown, vs today's result of -5.452m vs1.45m expected. This was not a true market reflection of inventories expectations, but nevertheless we saw a wobble between 39.64-38.57 the low on the 30 min stick on the release of the data as the market continues with the bearish theme in commodity prices, despite lower inventories. WTI currently trades on $39 support.
Subsequently, USD/CAD is mixed on the data while Fed's Dudley and general sentiment on timings on a Fed hike is being pushed back into 2016 that is weighing on the greenback. Dudley was has said that "International developments have raised downside risks…a September hike seems less compelling to me that it was a few weeks ago…important not to overreact to market development." However, it was the Durable Goods Orders that has been the real catalyst for a move in the commodity sector where USD/CAD rallied from 1.3250 low to 1.3286 on the 30 min stick and has remained better bid since and supported on supply 1.3275 the low post the data.
USD/CAD is technically heavy below SMA100
Technically, analysts at TD Securities explained that their daily fair value estimate from last Friday's close sits well below spot around 1.3110. However, they allow room for a drift higher and hold a Q3 target for 1.3300. So, the recent surge in prices may be seen as slightly heavy on that analyses within a volatile commodities currency space, with 1.3311 and the SMA 100 as a strong resistance level.
1.3279 is the pivot as a support ahead of 1.3202, 1.3068, 1.2991 and 1.2951 the low for August. 1.2800 comes as a triple top monthly resistance area on the downside as an appropriate support level also. On continued upside, 1.3413 comes as R1 and 1.3490 as R2.