15 Sep 2015
Market focus shifts to US retail sales – BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, note that the market will be focusing today on the release of US retail sales data for August, ahead of the Thursday FOMC meeting.
Key Quotes
“Consensus is for a headline gain of 0.3% m/m compared to a 0.6% gain in July. Auto sales were strong last month, and so we see upside risks to the headline. Sales ex-autos are expected to rise 0.2% m/m vs. 0.4% in July, while the so-called “control group” used for GDP calculations is expected to rise 0.3% m/m vs. 0.3% in July.”
“Yet the Fed does not rely on any single indicator in setting policy. US consumption has been soft in recent months, but we think the Fed puts more weight on the state of the labor market in terms of real sector data. While a strong retail sales would support the Fed’s case for lift-off, we do not think it is a make or break event.”
Key Quotes
“Consensus is for a headline gain of 0.3% m/m compared to a 0.6% gain in July. Auto sales were strong last month, and so we see upside risks to the headline. Sales ex-autos are expected to rise 0.2% m/m vs. 0.4% in July, while the so-called “control group” used for GDP calculations is expected to rise 0.3% m/m vs. 0.3% in July.”
“Yet the Fed does not rely on any single indicator in setting policy. US consumption has been soft in recent months, but we think the Fed puts more weight on the state of the labor market in terms of real sector data. While a strong retail sales would support the Fed’s case for lift-off, we do not think it is a make or break event.”