24 Sep 2015
CAD: 1.35 year-end target to be modest - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Wespac, suggest that given the present economic conditions in Canada and rest of the world, the 1.35 year-end target may prove too modest.
Key Quotes
“The ink has barely dried on Governor Poloz’s pep talk earlier this week and July retail sales have already issued a strong challenge, ex-auto sales showing no growth in the month and the previous month’s rise trimmed almost in half.”
“The bounce back from the technical recession in H1 is shaping up to be lackluster. Our Canadian data surprise index certainly suggests plenty of scope for a run of weaker data, having posted a strong rise in summer to 4 month highs.”
“The BoC’s forecast for 2% annualised growth in H2 looks decidedly optimistic, amid still soft energy prices, fi scal restraint and a lack of progress in non-energy exports. The weaker run of global PMIs (Philly, Empire and Richmond all falling into negative territory and the Caixin PMI at 7 year lows) suggest external conditions remain very hostile for CAD too.”
Key Quotes
“The ink has barely dried on Governor Poloz’s pep talk earlier this week and July retail sales have already issued a strong challenge, ex-auto sales showing no growth in the month and the previous month’s rise trimmed almost in half.”
“The bounce back from the technical recession in H1 is shaping up to be lackluster. Our Canadian data surprise index certainly suggests plenty of scope for a run of weaker data, having posted a strong rise in summer to 4 month highs.”
“The BoC’s forecast for 2% annualised growth in H2 looks decidedly optimistic, amid still soft energy prices, fi scal restraint and a lack of progress in non-energy exports. The weaker run of global PMIs (Philly, Empire and Richmond all falling into negative territory and the Caixin PMI at 7 year lows) suggest external conditions remain very hostile for CAD too.”