21 Oct 2015
ECB and EUR: Two-way risk – TDS
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from TD Securities the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow is a two way risk for the euro, that could rise or fall, depending on what the ECB decides and what Draghi says.
Key Quotes:
“We see more two-way risk from this ECB meeting than recently. While we see a 30% chance of a rate cut and/ or QE announcement, it is still unlikely until December.”
“This leaves rhetoric in the driver’s seat. Any language that keeps hope alive for December sees euro and rates lower, but Eurozone data has not deteriorated further since September, so Draghi has no new catalyst to increase dovishness. This leaves some pricing that could be disappointed if Draghi is too optimistic.”
“We see a 30% the ECB cuts this week and a 50/50 chance that comes in December.”
Key Quotes:
“We see more two-way risk from this ECB meeting than recently. While we see a 30% chance of a rate cut and/ or QE announcement, it is still unlikely until December.”
“This leaves rhetoric in the driver’s seat. Any language that keeps hope alive for December sees euro and rates lower, but Eurozone data has not deteriorated further since September, so Draghi has no new catalyst to increase dovishness. This leaves some pricing that could be disappointed if Draghi is too optimistic.”
“We see a 30% the ECB cuts this week and a 50/50 chance that comes in December.”