26 Oct 2015
Canadian GDP growth likely decelerated - TDE
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TD Economics, expect the Canadian industry-level real GDP growth to have decelerated to a modest 0.2% monthly advance in August.
Key Quotes
“Activity in the extraction sector likely increased further, though at a slower pace than in recent months. An observed increase in domestic production and imports into the PADD 2 region of the United States, stronger petroleum rail car loadings, and a benign month for maintenance shutdowns are all consistent with this expectation. Activity elsewhere will likely be more mixed. Declines in manufacturing and wholesale volumes will weigh on headline growth, while strength in the retail sector will provide an effective offset.”
“We also expect a further normalization in the arts and entertainment sector that will only be partially mitigated by increased tourism accompanying a weaker CAD. The forecast for industry-level real GDP lines up with at least an annualized 2.5% growth rate for Q3 (some tracking models correspond to growth as firm as 2.9%). This is aligned with the Bank of Canada’s revised forecast and an upside surprise further cements an overnight rate of 0.50% for the balance of the year and well into 2016.”
Key Quotes
“Activity in the extraction sector likely increased further, though at a slower pace than in recent months. An observed increase in domestic production and imports into the PADD 2 region of the United States, stronger petroleum rail car loadings, and a benign month for maintenance shutdowns are all consistent with this expectation. Activity elsewhere will likely be more mixed. Declines in manufacturing and wholesale volumes will weigh on headline growth, while strength in the retail sector will provide an effective offset.”
“We also expect a further normalization in the arts and entertainment sector that will only be partially mitigated by increased tourism accompanying a weaker CAD. The forecast for industry-level real GDP lines up with at least an annualized 2.5% growth rate for Q3 (some tracking models correspond to growth as firm as 2.9%). This is aligned with the Bank of Canada’s revised forecast and an upside surprise further cements an overnight rate of 0.50% for the balance of the year and well into 2016.”