28 Oct 2015
FOMC: Fed to stay dovish with cautious tone – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Deutsche Bank’s US economists expect the FOMC statement (2PM EDT) to be dovish one, with a more cautious tone relative to September.
Key Quotes
“The US economy likely grew under 2% last quarter, and growth prospects for the current quarter are dimming in light of the sharp slowdown in the index of leading economic indicators. Moreover, the trajectory of consumer spending, the dominant driver of economic output, weakened intra-quarter (i.e., between July and September).”
“The description of the labor market will surely have to be toned down as well as the job market has meaningfully slowed over the past couple of months. The financial markets will treat the marking down of the Fed’s near-term assessment of the economy as dovish, thereby further reducing the probability of a December 2015 rate hike.”
“And if the Fed determines that it really wants to raise rates this year, the likely tightening in financial conditions that would accompany such a desire would give policymakers pause. Therefore, we do not expect a rate hike until the March 2016 meeting at the earliest.”
Key Quotes
“The US economy likely grew under 2% last quarter, and growth prospects for the current quarter are dimming in light of the sharp slowdown in the index of leading economic indicators. Moreover, the trajectory of consumer spending, the dominant driver of economic output, weakened intra-quarter (i.e., between July and September).”
“The description of the labor market will surely have to be toned down as well as the job market has meaningfully slowed over the past couple of months. The financial markets will treat the marking down of the Fed’s near-term assessment of the economy as dovish, thereby further reducing the probability of a December 2015 rate hike.”
“And if the Fed determines that it really wants to raise rates this year, the likely tightening in financial conditions that would accompany such a desire would give policymakers pause. Therefore, we do not expect a rate hike until the March 2016 meeting at the earliest.”