10 Oct 2013
Australian jobs next: Impact on the AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian Dollar continues its slow ascension this week, despite price activity needs some further unraveling to clarify the technical picture.
For now, the key technical resistance most market participants are keeping an eye on is 0.9450/60, a magnet-like level which has performed incredibly well on capping AUD/USD half-hearted attempts to break higher, with the area only being briefly conquered in a few occasions, yet bulls keep failing at consolidating above it.
Whether or not a more powerful impulsive through 0.9450 en route to 0.9500 can manifest, it will depend on the Australian employment report, due at 00.30GMT, with Australian September employment change expected at 15k vs –10.8k last. In terms of the unemployment rate, forecast and prior stand at +5.8%.
There has been a couple of report worth reading ahead of the Australian data, with Westpac first arguing that today's numbers should be a reminder of why the RBA still has some work to do on cutting rates. Meanwhile, RBS is more optimistic, thinking that risks for the Australian Dollar are skewed to the upside today.
In view of Kenny Fisher from Forexcrunch, overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release. According to Fisher, there are 5 possible scenarios that may play out depending on the data results.
Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two resistance lines could be broken.
Below expectations: 8.0K to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For now, the key technical resistance most market participants are keeping an eye on is 0.9450/60, a magnet-like level which has performed incredibly well on capping AUD/USD half-hearted attempts to break higher, with the area only being briefly conquered in a few occasions, yet bulls keep failing at consolidating above it.
Whether or not a more powerful impulsive through 0.9450 en route to 0.9500 can manifest, it will depend on the Australian employment report, due at 00.30GMT, with Australian September employment change expected at 15k vs –10.8k last. In terms of the unemployment rate, forecast and prior stand at +5.8%.
There has been a couple of report worth reading ahead of the Australian data, with Westpac first arguing that today's numbers should be a reminder of why the RBA still has some work to do on cutting rates. Meanwhile, RBS is more optimistic, thinking that risks for the Australian Dollar are skewed to the upside today.
In view of Kenny Fisher from Forexcrunch, overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release. According to Fisher, there are 5 possible scenarios that may play out depending on the data results.
Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two resistance lines could be broken.
Below expectations: 8.0K to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.