Might now want to get too excited about a Senate-led budget deal in the US

The Senate has never been the issue. It is the fiscal hawks in the House of Representatives who’ve been driving the shut-down and the debt ceiling confrontation. The Senate can work out a compromise, but unless there is something for the hawks in the package, passage is not a sure thing.

One important detail to keep an eye on in the negotiations is the future of the so-called sequester. If those cuts are maintained into the new fiscal year, there is much better odds of passage in the House. Without those cuts, the confrontation will continue and the risk of default rises.