12 Nov 2015
BoE rate hike to come Q2 2016- ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ING Bank noted that the encouraging UK employment data was slightly offset by disappointing news on wages. However, they remain upbeat about the UK’s outlook and they favour a BoE hike in the second quarter of 2016.
Key Quotes:
"Yesterday’s UK labour report presented a slightly mixed picture. On the employment front, the economy added 177,000 jobs in the three months to September, well surpassing expectations. This adds weight to the argument that the decline in employment seen in 2Q was attributable to temporary uncertainty surrounding the General Election.
The latest rise helped bring the “headline” 3M average unemployment rate down to a new post-crisis low of 5.3% and based on the previous two single month figures, a further decline next month looks possible.
Unfortunately, this positive view was slightly tempered by the wage data. Regular pay (excl. bonuses) grew at 2.5% YoY, down from 2.8% and led, rather disappointingly, by a large single-month slowdown in the pace of private sector wage growth (2.1% from 2.9%). Recently, this has been the main driver of wage growth given the ongoing clampdown in public sector pay.
Looking at the broader picture though, it is worth noting that real wage growth remains buoyant given the current low rate of inflation. Moreover, the broader trend in wage growth remains fairly encouraging and against a backdrop of strong consumer demand, this should translate into higher service sector inflation over the coming months.
Given that the effect of last year’s oil price plunge will drop out of the CPI data in the next few releases, we expect headline inflation to climb through 2016. Although the dovish elements of last week’s BoE Inflation Report are keeping market expectations at bay, the upside risks to the Bank’s inflation forecast together with an encouraging growth outlook keep us comfortable with our call for a 2Q16 rate hike."
Key Quotes:
"Yesterday’s UK labour report presented a slightly mixed picture. On the employment front, the economy added 177,000 jobs in the three months to September, well surpassing expectations. This adds weight to the argument that the decline in employment seen in 2Q was attributable to temporary uncertainty surrounding the General Election.
The latest rise helped bring the “headline” 3M average unemployment rate down to a new post-crisis low of 5.3% and based on the previous two single month figures, a further decline next month looks possible.
Unfortunately, this positive view was slightly tempered by the wage data. Regular pay (excl. bonuses) grew at 2.5% YoY, down from 2.8% and led, rather disappointingly, by a large single-month slowdown in the pace of private sector wage growth (2.1% from 2.9%). Recently, this has been the main driver of wage growth given the ongoing clampdown in public sector pay.
Looking at the broader picture though, it is worth noting that real wage growth remains buoyant given the current low rate of inflation. Moreover, the broader trend in wage growth remains fairly encouraging and against a backdrop of strong consumer demand, this should translate into higher service sector inflation over the coming months.
Given that the effect of last year’s oil price plunge will drop out of the CPI data in the next few releases, we expect headline inflation to climb through 2016. Although the dovish elements of last week’s BoE Inflation Report are keeping market expectations at bay, the upside risks to the Bank’s inflation forecast together with an encouraging growth outlook keep us comfortable with our call for a 2Q16 rate hike."