18 Nov 2015
Fed December rate hike probability now at 68%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The probability of a 25 basis point rate in December now stands at 67.8%, the latest data from the CME Fed watch shows.
Post the October NFP release the December rate hike probability was at 70%, while the same had dropped to 63% earlier today in the US session. The January probability and the March probability now stand at 72% and 84%; largely unchanged from where it was ahead of the minutes release.
Meanwhile, the 2-yr Treasury yield; currently at 0.876%; which also represents short-term interest rate expectations remains largely unaffected by the Fed minutes. The yield had spiked to a 5-year high of 0.958% after the October non-farm payrolls number was reported way above expectations on Nov.6.
Post the October NFP release the December rate hike probability was at 70%, while the same had dropped to 63% earlier today in the US session. The January probability and the March probability now stand at 72% and 84%; largely unchanged from where it was ahead of the minutes release.
Meanwhile, the 2-yr Treasury yield; currently at 0.876%; which also represents short-term interest rate expectations remains largely unaffected by the Fed minutes. The yield had spiked to a 5-year high of 0.958% after the October non-farm payrolls number was reported way above expectations on Nov.6.