Australia's capex: Major headline miss, 4th estimate 15/16 at A$120bln

FXStreet (Bali) - Australia's private capital expenditure (CAPEX) has come at -9.2% for Q3 vs -2.9% expected and -4% prior, while the 4th estimate of investment plans for 2015/16, with the survey conducted from Oct to early Nov, coming at A$120bln, in line with expectations and against 3rd estimate of A$115bln.

The headline data is a major miss, while the forward-looking projection on investment comes as expected. With regards to Q3 building capex, it came at -9.8% QoQ (seasonally adjusted), while Plant and machinery capex stood at -8.2% QoQ (seasonally adjusted).

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)

The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 6.5% in the September quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 9.2%.

The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 7.0% in the September quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 9.8%.

The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery fell 4.7% in the September quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 8.2%.

EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT PRICE TERMS)

This issue includes the fourth estimate (Estimate 4) for 2015-16.

Estimate 4 for 2015-16 is $120,353m. This is 20.9% lower than Estimate 4 for 2014-15. Estimate 4 is 4.0% higher than Estimate 3 for 2015-16.

See pages 7-10 for further commentary on expectations data.